An Assessment of Monetary Integration in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ): Feasibility and Trade Implication

Abstract

This thesis provides an assessment of monetary integration in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) focusing upon its feasibility and trade implications, in order to inform policy about the group’s deep integration scheme. The first aspect of the original contribution of the thesis focuses on one of the main issues in the debate of the monetary union in the WAMZ, namely the degree of asymmetry in macroeconomic shocks. The study examines the real effective exchange rate (REER) behaviour among the prospective candidates to assess the degree of potential costs of giving up monetary policy autonomy. The evidence reported from VECM, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis points to heterogeneous economies. Therefore, idiosyncratic shocks imply the need for different policy responses to adjust to macroeconomic shocks. The findings strengthen the case for policy autonomy in the region. The second aspect of original contribution of the thesis evaluates the potential effect of a common currency on trade among WAMZ member countries. Using the existing currency union in ECOWAS, the CFA franc zone, the chapter estimates the effect of a common currency on bilateral trade over the period 1980-2016 using the gravity model. The main conclusion reached is that membership of the CFA franc zone has promoted bilateral trade among members by 60%. The findings support the hypothesis that a common currency increases bilateral trade, which is a helpful guide for a WAMZ monetary union. In summary, the thesis demonstrates that in the long term, a common currency would promote intra-community trade, but at present, a monetary union is not feasible due to asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. Therefore WAMZ deep integration scheme would require members instituting adequate alternative adjustment mechanisms such as fiscal transfer schemes.