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    An Assessment of Monetary Integration in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ): Feasibility and Trade Implication

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    PhD Thesis (2.103Mb)
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    Publication date
    2019
    Author
    Adu, Raymond
    Supervisor
    Baimbridge, Mark J.
    Litsios, Ioannis
    Keyword
    West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)
    Optimum-currency-areas
    Shock asymmetry
    Gravity model of trade
    Intra-ECOWAS trade
    Real exchange rate
    ECOWAS single currency
    Rights
    Creative Commons License
    The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
    Institution
    University of Bradford
    Department
    Faculty of Management, Law and Social Sciences, School of Management
    Awarded
    2019
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This thesis provides an assessment of monetary integration in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) focusing upon its feasibility and trade implications, in order to inform policy about the group’s deep integration scheme. The first aspect of the original contribution of the thesis focuses on one of the main issues in the debate of the monetary union in the WAMZ, namely the degree of asymmetry in macroeconomic shocks. The study examines the real effective exchange rate (REER) behaviour among the prospective candidates to assess the degree of potential costs of giving up monetary policy autonomy. The evidence reported from VECM, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis points to heterogeneous economies. Therefore, idiosyncratic shocks imply the need for different policy responses to adjust to macroeconomic shocks. The findings strengthen the case for policy autonomy in the region. The second aspect of original contribution of the thesis evaluates the potential effect of a common currency on trade among WAMZ member countries. Using the existing currency union in ECOWAS, the CFA franc zone, the chapter estimates the effect of a common currency on bilateral trade over the period 1980-2016 using the gravity model. The main conclusion reached is that membership of the CFA franc zone has promoted bilateral trade among members by 60%. The findings support the hypothesis that a common currency increases bilateral trade, which is a helpful guide for a WAMZ monetary union. In summary, the thesis demonstrates that in the long term, a common currency would promote intra-community trade, but at present, a monetary union is not feasible due to asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. Therefore WAMZ deep integration scheme would require members instituting adequate alternative adjustment mechanisms such as fiscal transfer schemes.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17674
    Type
    Thesis
    Qualification name
    PhD
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    Theses

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