Inflation and economic growth relationship in the West African Monetary Zone

Abstract

Inflation and output growth relationship is of interest to policymakers and researchers. In the West African Monetary Zone, the attainment of low inflation rate is considered as one of the convergence criteria for the successful implementation of monetary union in the zone. Although there has been empirical evidence that the relationship between inflation and output growth in the WAMZ is non-linear, the question yet to be answered is, “at what level is inflation detrimental to economic growth?” This paper extends the link of analysis by investigating the optimal inflation for the WAMZ countries using the quadratic approach to threshold estimation. The findings drawing from economic theory and analysis suggests that inflation rate in the WAMZ is significantly associated with lower growth only after it reaches 12.86 percent. The result further indicates that there are significant differences in the inflation threshold levels in the WAMZ countries. The findings of this research are not surprising given the institutional features and structure of the different countries in the zone. The findings of the research suggest that monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries could accommodate inflation rate up to the threshold level, even when that is higher than what is currently being targeted in the zone, so as not to stifle growth in the area. Also, although the WAMZ countries belong to the same geographical area, which could enhance group formation; there could be other sources of heterogeneity like different political, legal, economic, and national policies that drive individual growth processes in the zone.