Loading...
Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation
Love, P.E.D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D. Irani, Zahir
Love, P.E.D.
Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D.
Irani, Zahir
Publication Date
2016-10
End of Embargo
Supervisor
Rights
© 2017 Elsevier. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-Reviewed
Yes
Open Access status
openAccess
Accepted for publication
03/08/2016
Institution
Department
Awarded
Embargo end date
Collections
Additional title
Abstract
Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been
a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press.
Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun
mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for
Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to
cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood
and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended
to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this
paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun
causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability
to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic
understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase
the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of
effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation
infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers.
Version
Accepted manuscript
Citation
Love PED, Ahiaga-Dagbui DD and Irani Z (2016) Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 92: 184-194.
Link to publisher’s version
Link to published version
Link to Version of Record
Type
Article