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    A comparison of flare forecasting methods, I: results from the “All-clear” workshop

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    Publication date
    2016-10
    Author
    Barnes, G.
    Leka, K.D.
    Schrijver, C.J.
    Colak, Tufan
    Qahwaji, Rami S.R.
    Ashamari, Omar
    Yuan, Y.
    Zhang, J.
    McAteer, R.T.J.
    Bloomfield, D.S.
    Higgins, P.A.
    Gallagher, P.T.
    Falconer, D.A.
    Georgoulis, M.K.
    Wheatland, M.S.
    Balch, C.
    Show allShow less
    Keyword
    Methods; Statistical – sun; Flares – sun; Magnetic fields
    Rights
    © 2016 American Astronomical Association. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Peer-Reviewed
    Yes
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environ- ment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has prolifer- ated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on “all clear” forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from MDI, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends towards a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/8663
    Version
    Accepted Manuscript
    Citation
    Barnes G, Leka KD and Schrijver CJ et al. (2016) A comparison of flare forecasting methods, I: results from the “All-clear” workshop. The Astrophysical Journal. 829(2).
    Link to publisher’s version
    https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89
    Type
    Article
    Collections
    Engineering and Informatics Publications

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