• Evaluating methodological issues in the tourism literature: UK outgoing tourism and trade links

      Jackson, Karen; Zang, Wenyu (2015-03)
      This paper evaluates the importance of trade in goods when modelling demand for tourism. It is argued that the limited literature testing causality between trade in goods and tourism does not consider the appropriate variables. This study utilises bilateral data for 16 UK tourist destinations in order to test Granger causality between trade in goods and tourism expenditure. UK imports, exports and total trade are tested separately, whilst controlling for real GDP and real bilateral exchange rates. The novelty of this paper is the variable specification, as well as testing the causal relationship for the case of UK outgoing tourists. Our findings suggest a causal relationship between the tourism expenditure of UK residents and trade in goods. These results support the inclusion of a trade in goods variable when estimating tourism demand, as well as adopting appropriate methodologies to account for this causal relationship. Furthermore, there is strong evidence that the trade-tourism link is important for both the UK and host countries.
    • Post-Brexit trade survival: looking beyond the European Union

      Jackson, Karen; Shepotylo, Oleksandr (2018-06)
      As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.
    • Regional trade institutions in West Africa: historical reflections

      Bah, Essa; Jackson, Karen; Potts, David J. (2018-11)
      This paper reflects on trade institutions across West Africa from the Empirehood to the present day. We found that regional trade institutions were more standardised across West Africa before the current countries gained their independence. We argue that reflection on past trade institutions could provide important guidance for policy makers currently involved in deepening the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Our review of the literature suggests that the Empirehood was an era with more standardised trade institutions across the region relative to the current ones. Societal norms and political consensus such as the ‘Mande charter’ and the coming of Islam created a discipline that enhanced confidence in the ability to trade, which was facilitated by common trade institutions such as convertible common currencies and letters of credit. During the colonial era, West African common currencies were also established to facilitate exchange. Historical changes in governance resulted in the loss of some facets of well-functioning trade institutions. This paper argues that historical context can provide policy makers with the confidence that current institutional barriers to trade can be addressed. ECOWAS members could reflect on historical good practices if they are to accelerate the integration process and to realise the full potential of regional trade.
    • The segmentation of Europe: convergence or divergence between core and periphery?

      Baimbridge, Mark J.; Litsios, Ioannis; Jackson, Karen; Lee, Uih R. (2017)
      This book explores economic developments across Europe in relation to its apparent segmentation, as disparities widen between core and periphery countries. In contrast to previous literature, the scope of analysis is extended to Europe as a continent rather than confining it solely to the European Union, thereby providing the reader with greater insight into the core/periphery nexus. The authors commence with a critical appraisal of economic thinking in relation to regional trade agreements and monetary integration. In relation to a number of EU economies, the book addresses issues of a liquidity trap, deflation, and twin deficits, together with the interconnection between exchange rates and current account balances. Importantly, they extend the discussion of segmentation through a series of focused case studies on Russia, Brexit and emergence of the mega-regionals.