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    Impact of business forecasting on demand planning. A strategy for improving business forecasting and reducing inventories throughout the supply chain for fast moving consumer goods in the Middle East market.

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    Publication date
    2010-06-17T15:42:04Z
    Author
    Tanwari, Anwar U.
    Supervisor
    Betts, James
    Keyword
    Forecasting
    Logistics
    Fast moving consumer goods
    Muslim calendar
    Inventory management
    Stock holding
    Cussons (UK) Limited
    Seasonal demand
    Customer service.
    Rights
    Creative Commons License
    The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
    Institution
    University of Bradford
    Department
    Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Department of Industrial Technology
    Awarded
    1999
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Poor quality of information and forecasting create a number of problems for manufacturing companies, such as poor planning of products and insufficient service levels, which leads to increased inventory and stock holding or stockouts and increased total costs. Cussons (UK) Limited is experiencing precisely these problems. Apart from these problems normally associated with forecasting demand for fast moving consumer goods there is an additional problem of reconciling the Western calendar with the Muslim calendar, and a recognition of the effects that Muslim religious holidays, as opposed to Christian religious holidays, have on demand. Muslim religious holidays rotate backwards with regard to the Western calendar, but in fact they occur at known dates and therefore the effect they have on demand for products can be taken into consideration when attempting to forecast demand. An additional problem that influences Cussons' sales in the market is the seasonal pattern of demand. Due to this, there is an increase in demand for Cussons' products during summer months. From the analysis of both data sets it was identified that the warehouse movement data is less variable and more reliable for business forecasting than order data. In this thesis, these forecasting problems are examined as a case study, focusing on these particular problems. To overcome these problems and to improve business forecasting of Cussons' products in the Middle East market, a forecasting strategy has been suggested which will enable Cusson's to reduce the inventories throughout the supply chain and to improve their customer's service.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/4336
    Type
    Thesis
    Qualification name
    PhD
    Collections
    Theses

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