Engineering System Design for Automated Space Weather Forecast. Designing Automatic Software Systems for the Large-Scale Analysis of Solar Data, Knowledge Extraction and the Prediction of Solar Activities Using Machine Learning Techniques.
AuthorAlomari, Mohammad H.
SupervisorQahwaji, Rami S.R.
Ipson, Stanley S.
KeywordCoronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
Space weather forecast
Machine learning techniques
Hidden Markov Model (HMM).
The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
InstitutionUniversity of Bradford
DepartmentSchool of Computing, Informatics & Media
MetadataShow full item record
AbstractCoronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations¿ datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).
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A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-day Forecasting PatternsPark, S.H.; Leka, K.D.; Kusano, K.; Andries, J.; Barnes, G.; Bingham, S.; Bloomfield, D.S.; McCloskey, A.E.; Delouille, V.; Falconer, D.; et al. (2020-02-19)A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.
Solar Feature Catalogues in EGSOZharkova, Valentina V.; Aboudarham, J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Ipson, Stanley S.; Benkhalil, Ali K.; Fuller, N. (Springer, 2005)The Solar Feature Catalogues (SFCs) are created from digitized solar images using automated pattern recognition techniques developed in the European Grid of Solar Observation (EGSO) project. The techniques were applied for detection of sunspots, active regions and filaments in the automatically standardized full-disk solar images in Caii K1, Caii K3 and H¿ taken at the Meudon Observatory and white-light images and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI. The results of automated recognition are verified with the manual synoptic maps and available statistical data from other observatories that revealed high detection accuracy. A structured database of the Solar Feature Catalogues is built on the MySQL server for every feature from their recognized parameters and cross-referenced to the original observations. The SFCs are published on the Bradford University web site http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/SFC/ with the pre-designed web pages for a search by time, size and location. The SFCs with 9 year coverage (1996¿2004) provide any possible information that can be extracted from full disk digital solar images. Thus information can be used for deeper investigation of the feature origin and association with other features for their automated classification and solar activity forecast.
Development of digital imaging technologies for the segmentation of solar features and the extraction of filling factors from SODISM imagesQahwaji, Rami S.R.; Ipson, Stanley S.; Alasta, Amro F.A. (University of BradfordSchool of Electrical Engineering and computer. Science Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, 2018)Solar images are one of the most important sources of available information on the current state and behaviour of the sun, and the PICARD satellite is one of several ground and space-based observatories dedicated to the collection of that data. The PICARD satellite hosts the Solar Diameter Imager and Surface Mapper (SODISM), a telescope aimed at continuously monitoring the Sun. It has generated a huge cache of images and other data that can be analysed and interpreted to improve the monitoring of features, such as sunspots and the prediction and diagnosis of solar activity. In proportion to the available raw material, the little-published analysis of SODISM data has provided the impetus for this study, specifically a novel method of contributing to the development of a system to enhance, detect and segment sunspots using new hybrid methods. This research aims to yield an improved understanding of SODISM data by providing novel methods to tabulate a sunspot and filling factor (FF) catalogue, which will be useful for future forecasting activities. The developed technologies and the findings achieved in this research will work as a corner stone to enhance the accuracy of sunspot segmentation; create efficient filling factor catalogue systems, and enhance our understanding of SODISM image enhancement. The results achieved can be summarised as follows: i) Novel enhancement method for SODISM images. ii) New efficient methods to segment dark regions and detect sunspots. iii) Novel catalogue for filling factor including the number, size and sunspot location. v) Novel statistical method to summarise FFs catalogue. Image processing and partitioning techniques are used in this work; these methods have been applied to remove noise and detect sunspots and will provide more information such as sunspot numbers, size and filling factor. The performance of the model is compared to the fillers extracted from other satellites, such as SOHO. Also, the results were compared with the NOAA catalogue and achieved a precision of 98%. Performance measurement is also introduced and applied to verify results and evaluate proposal methods. Algorithms, implementation, results and future work have been explained in this thesis.