• Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems

      Kabir, Sohag; Walker, M.; Papadopoulos, Y.; Rüde, E.; Securius, P. (2016-10)
      Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a powerful technique that is widely used for evaluating system safety and reliability. It can be used to assess the effects of combinations of failures on system behaviour but is unable to capture sequence dependent dynamic behaviour. A number of extensions to fault trees have been proposed to overcome this limitation. Pandora, one such extension, introduces temporal gates and temporal laws to allow dynamic analysis of temporal fault trees (TFTs). It can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. The quantitative evaluation of failure probability in Pandora TFTs is performed using exact probabilistic data about component failures. However, exact data can often be difficult to obtain. In this paper, we propose a method that combines expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory with Pandora TFTs to enable dynamic analysis of complex systems with limited or absent exact quantitative data. This gives Pandora the ability to perform quantitative analysis under uncertainty, which increases further its potential utility in the emerging field of model-based design and dependability analysis. The method has been demonstrated by applying it to a fault tolerant fuel distribution system of a ship, and the results are compared with the results obtained by other existing techniques.
    • Model-based assessment of energy-efficiency, dependability, and cost-effectiveness of waste heat recovery systems onboard ship

      Lampe, J.; Rüde, E.; Papadopoulus, Y.; Kabir, Sohag (2018-06-01)
      Technological systems are not merely designed with a narrow function in mind. Good designs typically aim at reducing operational costs, e.g. through achieving high energy efficiency and improved dependability (i.e. reliability, availability and maintainability). When there is a choice of alternative design options that perform the same function, it makes sense to compare alternatives so that the variant that minimises operational costs can be selected. In this paper, we examine this issue in the context of the design of Waste Heat Recovery Systems (WHRS) for main engines of large commercial freight vessels. We propose a method that can predict the operational cost of a WHRS via thermodynamic analysis which shows costs related to energy utilisation, and dependability analysis which shows costs related to system unavailability and repair. Our approach builds on recent advances in thermodynamic simulation and compositional dependability analysis techniques. It is a model-based approach, and allows reuse of component libraries, and a high degree of automation which simplify application of the method. Our case study shows that alternative designs can be explored in fast iterations of this method, and that this facilitates the evidence-based selection of a design that minimises operational costs.