Spending to save: Retrospective Case Studies.

Abstract

The key questions to be addressed in this study are: ¿ with the benefit of hindsight, what conflict prevention `packages¿ could the international community have designed in order to minimise the probability of the conflicts that actually took place? ¿ how much would have been saved if these packages had been implemented, given reasonable estimates about their costs, compared with the actual cost of conflict and post-conflict intervention. The first section provides a background to the conflicts. This is followed by an assessment of the levels of resources that the international community has committed to the Western Balkans since 1991. The third part of the study provides two hypothetical scenarios for CP interventions that might have restrained conflict from breaking out. These CP packages are then costed and an assessment of their probability of success is made.