Politics in the next 50 years: The changing nature of international conflict

Abstract

This paper seeks to examine the underlying factors that will influence international security in the coming decades. In contrast to the Cold War era, it will be argued that two fundamental issues will largely determine the evolution of conflict - the widening socio-economic polarisation and problems of environmental constraints. Taken together with the proliferation of military technologies, the paper argues that attempts to maintain the present world order in the interests of a minority elite are unlikely to succeed and will, instead, enhance the risks of conflict. A radical re-thinking of western perceptions of security is necessary that will embrace a willingness to address the core causes of insecurity at their roots.