• Counter‐Credit‐Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market

      Luo, J.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Hu, M. (2016-03-03)
      In this paper, using China’s risk-free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter-credit-risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China’s credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism latent in the fundamental of this market. We also find interesting results about relationships between corporate yield spreads and interest rates as well as risk premia and the stock index, and these results are somewhat attributed to this puzzle.
    • Exploring mispricing in the term structure of CDS spreads

      Jarrow, R.; Li, H.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Hu, M. (2019-02)
      Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the CDS spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts. Our empirical results show that the trading strategy exhibits abnormally large returns, confirming the existence and persistence of a mispricing. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the mispricing is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. When implemented on the Markit data, the strategy shows significant economic value even after controlling for realistic transaction costs.
    • Exploring Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in the Term Structure of CDS Spreads

      Jarrow, R.A.; Li, H.; Ye, Xiaoxia (2016-08-01)
      Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore statistical arbitrage opportunities in the CDS spreads of North American companies. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade market-neutral portfolios while controlling for realistic transaction costs. Empirical results show that our arbitrage strategy is of significant economic value, and also cast doubt on the efficiency of the CDS market. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the market is less efficient when it is more volatile.
    • How Does the Market View Bank Regulatory Capital Forbearance Policies?

      Lai, V.S.; Ye, Xiaoxia (2017-01-17)
      During the subprime crisis, the FDIC has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank-specific to infer the stock market view of the regulatory capital forbearance value. For 565 U.S. listed banks during 1990 to 2012, the countercyclical forbearance fraction in capital, most substantial in recessions, could represent 17%, on average, of the market valuation of bank equity and could go as high as 100%.
    • Modeling municipal yields with (and without) bond insurance

      Chun, A.L.; Namvar, E.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Yu, F. (2019-08)
      We develop an intensity-based model of municipal yields, making simultaneous use of the CDS premiums of the insurers and both insured and uninsured municipal bond transactions. We estimate the model individually for 61 municipal issuers by exploiting the dramatic decline in credit quality of the bond insurers from July 2007 to June 2008, and decompose the municipal yield spread based on the estimated parameters. The decomposition reveals a dominant role of the liquidity component as well as interactions between liquidity and default similar to those modeled by Chen et al. (2016) for corporate bonds. Towards the end of the sample period, our model also reproduces the "yield inversion" phenomenon documented by Bergstresser et al. (2010).
    • A New Approach to Measuring Market Expectations and Term Premia

      Ye, Xiaoxia (2015)
      This article develops a novel approach for measuring market expectations and term premia in the term structure of interest rates. Key components of this approach are generic impact measures of state variables in a Gaussian dynamic term structure model. These measures are inherent in a particular state variable regardless of how other state variables are defined within the model. With the help of these measures, the approach gives rise to market expectations that predict yield changes well, and term premia with a legitimate impact on the forward curve. In my empirical analysis, I show the generic impact of the short rate on the yield curve, and present observations of the historical dynamics of market expectations and term premia. The calibrated model is also employed to study the impacts of recent unconventional monetary policies.
    • Optimizing enterprise risk management: a literature review and critical analysis of the work of Wu and Olson

      Choi, Y.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Zhao, L.; Luo, A.C. (2016-02)
      Risks exist in all aspects of our lives. Using data in both Scopus and ISI Web of Science, this review paper identifies pioneer work and pioneer scholars in enterprise risk management (ERM). Being ranked the first based on the review data, Desheng Wu has been active in this area by serving as a good academic network manager on the global research network, His global efforts with diverse networking have enabled him to publish outstanding papers in the field of ERM. Therefore, this paper also conducts a literature review of his papers and critical analysis of the work of Wu and Olson, from the perspective of the ERM, to glean implications and suggestions for the optimization and customization of the ERM.
    • A Unified HJM Approach to Non-Markov Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models: International Evidence

      Li, H.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Yu, F. (2016-07-28)
      Motivated by an extensive literature showing that government bond yields exhibit a strong non-Markov property, in the sense that moving averages of long-lagged yields significantly improve the predictability of excess bond returns. We then develop a systematic approach of constructing non-Markov Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework. Compared to the current literature, our approach is more flexible and parsimonious, enabling us to estimate an economically significant non-Markov effect that helps predict excess bond returns both in-sample and out-of-sample.
    • Unifying Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models from an HJM Perspective

      Li, H.; Ye, Xiaoxia; Fu, F. (2016-08-02)
      We show that the unified HJM-based approach of constructing Gaussian dynamic term structure models developed by Li, Ye, and Yu (2016) nests most existing GDTSMs as special cases. We also discuss issues of interest rate derivatives pricing under this approach and using integration to construct Markov representations of HJM models.