• Bridging the Distributor into a Collaborative Demand and Supply Planning Process

      Eksoz, C.; Onkal, Dilek (2018)
      Based on their study of the food distribution supply chain, Can Eksoz and Dilek Önkal argue that the distributor has largely been overlooked in the principles we’ve created for collaborative demand and supply planning. Their article re-inserts the distributor into the supply chain and examines the challenges of collaboration from the distributor’s vantage point. This is a good lesson in how collaborative agreements must address the particular structures of the supply chain as well as the markets in which the supply-chain partners operate.
    • Decision analysis in Turkey

      Gonul, M.S.; Soyer, E.; Onkal, Dilek (2014-05)
    • Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users' reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

      Onkal, Dilek; Gonul, M.S.; Goodwin, P.; Thomson, M.; Esra, O. (2017-01)
      In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit weighting depends on the advisor’s experienced (reflecting the accuracy of their past forecasts), or presumed (based on their status) credibility. Compared to a control group, advice from a source with a high experienced credibility received a greater weighting, but having a low level of experienced credibility did not reduce the weighting. In contrast, a high presumed credibility did not increase the weighting relative to a control group, while a low presumed credibility decreased it. When there were opportunities for the two types of credibility to interact, a high experienced credibility tended to eclipse the presumed credibility if the advisees were non-experts. However, when the advisees were professionals, both the presumed and experienced credibility of the advisor were influential in determining the weight attached to the advice.
    • Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting

      Alvarado-Valencia, J.; Barrero, L.H.; Onkal, Dilek; Dennerlein, J.T. (2017-01)
      Expert knowledge elicitation lies at the core of judgmental forecasting—a domain that relies fully on the power of such knowledge and its integration into forecasting. Using experts in a demand forecasting framework, this work aims to compare the accuracy improvements and forecasting performances of three judgmental integration methods. To do this, a field study was conducted with 31 experts from four companies. The methods compared were the judgmental adjustment, the 50–50 combination, and the divide-and-conquer. Forecaster expertise, the credibility of system forecasts and the need to rectify system forecasts were also assessed, and mechanisms for performing this assessment were considered. When (a) a forecaster’s relative expertise was high, (b) the relative credibility of the system forecasts was low, and (c) the system forecasts had a strong need of correction, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy relative to both the other integration methods and the system forecasts. Experts with higher levels of expertise showed higher adjustment frequencies. Our results suggest that judgmental adjustment promises to be valuable in the long term if adequate conditions of forecaster expertise and the credibility of system forecasts are met.
    • Technology as a disruptive agent: Intergenerational perspectives

      Mahroof, Kamran; Weerakkody, Vishanth J.P.; Onkal, Dilek; Hussain, Zahid I. (2018)
      This study explores how British South Asian parents perceive their children’s technology consumption through their collectivist lenses and interdependent values. The findings for this qualitative study indicate that second and third generation South Asian parents acknowledge the benefits of children’s technology use; but largely perceive technology as a disruptive agent, whereby children are becoming isolated and increasingly independent within the household. The analysis aims to understand how parents view their children’s relationship with others as a result of technology consumption. Accordingly, this paper proposes an extension of the Construal of self conceptualisation and contributes a Techno-construal matrix that establishes a dyadic connection between technology consumption and cultural values. Overall, the study reveals that children display less inter-reliance and conformance typically associated with collectivist cultures, resulting from their technology use. Consequently, parents interpret their children’s shift from interdependence to more independence as a disruptive and unsettling phenomenon within the household.
    • Toward a pedagogy for critical security studies: politics of migration in the classroom

      Bilgic, A.; Dhami, M.; Onkal, Dilek (2018-08)
      International Relations (IR) has increasingly paid attention to critical pedagogy. Feminist, post-colonial and poststructuralist IR scholarship, in particular, have long been advancing the discus-sions about how to create a pluralist and democratic classroom where ‘the others’ of politics can be heard by the students, who can critically reflect upon complex power relations in global politics. Despite its normative position, Critical Security Studies (CSS) has so far refrained from join-ing this pedagogical conversation. Deriving from the literatures of postcolonial and feminist pedagogical practices, it is argued that an IR scholar in the area of CSS can contribute to the pro-duction of a critical political subject in the 'uncomfortable classroom', who reflects on violent practices of security. Three pedagogical methods will be introduced: engaging with the students’ lifeworlds, revealing the positionality of security knowledge claims, and opening up the class-room to the choices about how the youth’s agency can be performed beyond the classroom. The argument is illustrated through the case of forced migration with specific reference to IR and Pol-itics students’ perceptions of Syrian refugees in Turkey. The article advances the discussions in critical IR pedagogy and encourages CSS scholarship to focus on teaching in accordance with its normative position.
    • What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

      Goodwin, P.; Onkal, Dilek; Stekler, H.O. (2018-04)
      Many studies have examined the extent to which individuals’ probability judgments depart from Bayes’ theorem when revising probability estimates in the light of new information. Generally, these studies have not considered the implications of such departures for decisions involving risk. We identify when such departures will occur in two common types of decisions. We then report on two experiments where people were asked to revise their own prior probabilities of a forthcoming economic recession in the light of new information. When the reliability of the new information was independent of the state of nature, people tended to overreact to it if their prior probability was low and underreact if it was high. When it was not independent, they tended to display conservatism. We identify the circumstances where discrepancies in decisions arising from a failure to use Bayes’ theorem were most likely to occur in the decision context we examined. We found that these discrepancies were relatively rare and, typically, were not serious.