• Forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes

      Balaban, E.; Lu, Shan (2016-04)
      This is a pioneering effort to test the comparative performance of two competing models for out-of-sample forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes employing both symmetric and asymmetric evaluation criteria. Under symmetric error statistics, our empirical model using the estimated growth factor of volatility through time is overall superior, and it beats in most cases the benchmark model of the square-root-of-time for holding periods between one and 250 days. Under asymmetric error statistics, if over-prediction (under-prediction) of volatility is undesirable, the empirical (benchmark) model is consistently superior. Relative performance of the empirical model is much higher for holding periods up to fifty days.
    • Influencing subjective well-being for business and sustainable development using big data and predictive regression analysis

      Weerakkody, Vishanth J.P.; Sivarajah, Uthayasankar; Mahroof, Kamran; Maruyama, Takao; Lu, Shan (2020)
      Business leaders and policymakers within service economies are placing greater emphasis on well-being, given the role of workers in such settings. Whilst people’s well-being can lead to economic growth, it can also have the opposite effect if overlooked. Therefore, enhancing subjective well-being (SWB) is pertinent for all organisations for the sustainable development of an economy. While health conditions were previously deemed the most reliable predictors, the availability of data on people’s personal lifestyles now offers a new dimension into well-being for organisations. Using open data available from the national Annual Population Survey in the UK, which measures SWB, this research uncovered that among several independent variables to predict varying levels of people's perceived well-being, long-term health conditions, one's marital status, and age played a key role in SWB. The proposed model provides the key indicators of measuring SWB for organisations using big data.
    • Monte Carlo analysis of methods for extracting risk-neutral densities with affine jump diffusions

      Lu, Shan (2019-12)
      This paper compares several widely-used and recently-developed methods to extract risk-neutral densities (RND) from option prices in terms of estimation accuracy. It shows that positive convolution approximation method consistently yields the most accurate RND estimates, and is insensitive to the discreteness of option prices. RND methods are less likely to produce accurate RND estimates when the underlying process incorporates jumps and when estimations are performed on sparse data, especially for short time-to-maturities, though sensitivity to the discreteness of the data differs across different methods.
    • Testing the predictive ability of corridor implied volatility under GARCH models

      Lu, Shan (2019-06)
      This paper studies the predictive ability of corridor implied volatility (CIV) measure. It is motivated by the fact that CIV is measured with better precision and reliability than the model-free implied volatility due to the lack of liquid options in the tails of the risk-neutral distribution. By adding CIV measures to the modified GARCH specifications, the out-of-sample predictive ability of CIV is measured by the forecast accuracy of conditional volatility. It finds that the narrowest CIV measure, covering about 10% of the RND, dominate the 1-day ahead conditional volatility forecasts regardless of the choice of GARCH models in high volatile period; as market moves to non volatile periods, the optimal width broadens. For multi-day ahead forecasts narrow and mid-range CIV measures are favoured in the full sample and high volatile period for all forecast horizons, depending on which loss functions are used; whereas in non turbulent markets, certain mid-range CIV measures are favoured, for rare instances, wide CIV measures dominate the performance. Regarding the comparisons between best performed CIV measures and two benchmark measures (market volatility index and at-the-money Black–Scholes implied volatility), it shows that under the EGARCH framework, none of the benchmark measures are found to outperform best performed CIV measures, whereas under the GARCH and NAGARCH models, best performed CIV measures are outperformed by benchmark measures for certain instances.