• An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain

      Pilbeam, K.; Litsios, Ioannis (2015)
      We provide new evidence that current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain have become non-stationary after the adoption of the euro implying that there is no long-run stable relationship between savings and investment contrary to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. This can be taken as evidence of unsustainable current account balances and loss of solvency for the underlying economies. Using the ARDL methodology we also report a statistical association between fiscal balances and current account balances which implies that fiscal austerity can help these economies to reduce their current account deficits and restore their competitiveness. Our empirical evidence also suggests a particularly strong significant negative association between domestic investment and current account deficits. The magnitude of this latter effect may have important policy implications concerning the ways in which investment is financed to improve external competitiveness.
    • Exchange rate determination and equity prices: Evidence from the UK

      Litsios, Ioannis (2013-11)
      This paper develops a model of optimal choice over an array of different assets, including domestic and foreign bonds, domestic and foreign equities, and domestic and foreign real money balances, with a view to examine whether stock markets have an effect on the exchange rate in the long-run. The model is tested using data from the UK and the USA. Evidence suggests that the UK stock market has a significant effect on the value of the pound's sterling nominal effective exchange rate in the long-run over the period 1982 to 2011.
    • The long-run determination of the real exchange rate. Evidence from an intertemporal modelling framework using the dollar-pound exchange rate

      Pilbeam, K.; Litsios, Ioannis (2015)
      This paper develops a model of optimal choice over an array of different assets, including domestic and foreign bonds, domestic and foreign equities and domestic and foreign real money balances in order to examine the determination of the real exchange rate in the long-run. The model is tested empirically using data from the UK and the USA. The results show that all the coefficients of the model are right signed and significant and consequently financial assets may play a significant role in the determination of the real exchange rate.
    • Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

      Adu, R.; Litsios, Ioannis; Baimbridge, Mark J. (2019-03)
      This paper examines real effective exchange rate (REER) responses to shocks in exchange rate determinants for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) over the period 1980–2015. The analysis is based on a country-by-country VECM, and oil price, supply and demand shocks are identified using long run restrictions in a structural VAR model. We report significant differences in the response of REER to real oil price, productivity (supply) and demand preference shocks across these economies. In addition the relative contribution of these shocks to REER movements in the short and long run appears to be different across economies. Our findings suggest that the WAMZ countries are structurally different, and asymmetric shocks with inadequate adjustment mechanisms imply that a monetary union would be costly.
    • The segmentation of Europe: convergence or divergence between core and periphery?

      Baimbridge, Mark J.; Litsios, Ioannis; Jackson, Karen; Lee, Uih R. (2017)
      This book explores economic developments across Europe in relation to its apparent segmentation, as disparities widen between core and periphery countries. In contrast to previous literature, the scope of analysis is extended to Europe as a continent rather than confining it solely to the European Union, thereby providing the reader with greater insight into the core/periphery nexus. The authors commence with a critical appraisal of economic thinking in relation to regional trade agreements and monetary integration. In relation to a number of EU economies, the book addresses issues of a liquidity trap, deflation, and twin deficits, together with the interconnection between exchange rates and current account balances. Importantly, they extend the discussion of segmentation through a series of focused case studies on Russia, Brexit and emergence of the mega-regionals.