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  • Sex and age differences in attitudes and intention to adopt personalised nutrition in a UK sample

    Stewart-Knox, Barbara; Poinhos, R.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Chaudhrey, M.; Rankin, A. (2022)
    There has been an increase in development of technologies that can deliver personalised dietary advice. Devising healthy, sustainable dietary plans will mean taking consideration of extrinsic factors such as individual social circumstances. The aim of this study was to identify societal groups more or less receptive to and likely to engage with digitally delivered personalised nutrition initiatives. Sample and Methods: Volunteers were recruited via a social research agency from within the UK. The resultant sample (N=1061) was 49% female, aged 18-65 years. Results: MANOVA (Tukey HSD applied) indicated that females and younger people (aged 18-29 years) had more favourable attitudes and were more likely to intend to adopt personalised nutrition. There were no differences in attitude toward or intention to adopt personalised nutrition between different education levels, income brackets or occupational groups. Conclusion: These results imply that females and younger people may be most likely to adopt personalised nutrition in the future. Initiatives to promote personalised nutrition should target males and older people.
  • Living with dementia under COVID-19 restrictions Coping and support needs among people with dementia and carers from the IDEAL cohort

    O'Rourke, G.; Pentecost, C.; Van den Heuvel, E.; Victor, C.; Quinn, Catherine; Hillman, A.; Litherland, R.; Clare, L. (2021)
    Stringent social restrictions imposed during 2020 to counter the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic could significantly affect the wellbeing and quality of life of people with dementia living in the community and their family carers. We explored the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on people with dementia and family carers in England and considered how negative effects might be mitigated. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 11 people with dementia and 11 family carers who were ongoing participants in the IDEAL cohort during the initial ‘lockdown’ period in May and June 2020, and follow-up interviews with five people with dementia and two carers as restrictions were eased in July. We analysed interview data and triangulated the findings with issues raised in dementia-specific online forums. Findings showed some people with dementia were coping well, but others experienced a range of negative impacts, with varying degrees of improvement as restrictions were eased. The need for clear personalised information relating to COVID-19 and the value of support in the form of regular ‘just checking’ phone calls was emphasised. This exceptional situation provides a natural demonstration of how social and psychological resources shape the potential to ‘live well’ with dementia. While some support is recommended for all, a personalised approach to determine needs and coping ability would ensure that further practical and emotional support is targeted effectively.
  • Developing a Management Guide (the DemPower App) for Couples Where One Partner Has Dementia: Nonrandomized Feasibility Study

    Lasrado, R.; Bielsten, T.; Hann, M.; Schumm, J.; Reilly, Siobhan T.; Davies, L.; Swarbrick, C.; Dowlen, R.; Keady, J.; Hellström, I. (2021-11-16)
    Promoting the health and well-being of couples where one partner has dementia is an overlooked area of care practice. Most postdiagnostic services currently lack a couple-centered approach and have a limited focus on the couple relationship. To help address this situation, we developed a tablet-based self-management guide (DemPower) focused on helping couples enhance their well-being and relationship quality. The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of the DemPower app. A nonrandomized feasibility design was used to evaluate the DemPower intervention over 3 months among couples where a partner had a diagnosis of dementia. The study recruited 25 couples in the United Kingdom and 19 couples in Sweden. Outcome measures were obtained at baseline and postintervention. The study process and interventions were evaluated at various stages. The study was completed by 48% (21/44) of couples where one partner had dementia, of whom 86% (18/21) of couples accessed all parts of the DemPower app. Each couple spent an average of 8 hours (SD 3.35 hours) using the app during the study period. In total, 90% (19/21) of couples reported that all sections of DemPower were useful in addressing various aspects of daily life and helped to focus on how they interacted in their relationship. Of the 4 core subjects on which the DemPower app was structured, home and neighborhood received the highest number of visits. Couples used activity sections more often than the core subject pages. The perception of DemPower's utility varied with each couple's lived experience of dementia, geographic location, relationship dynamics, and opportunities for social interaction. A 5.2-point increase in the dementia quality of life score for people with dementia and a marginal increase in the Mutuality scale (+1.23 points) for caregiver spouses were found. Design and navigational challenges were reported in the DemPower app. The findings suggest that the DemPower app is a useful resource for couples where one partner has dementia and that the implementation of the app requires the support of memory clinics to reach couples at early diagnosis. ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN10122979; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN10122979.
  • Impact of COVID-19 on ‘living well’ with mild-to-moderate dementia in the community: findings from the IDEAL cohort

    Clare, L.; Martyr, A.; Gamble, L.D.; Pentecost, C.; Collins, R.; Dawson, E.; Hunt, A.; Parker, S.; Allan, L.; Burns, A.; et al. (2021)
    Background. Negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with dementia have been widely-documented, but most studies have relied on carer reports and few have compared responses to information collected before the pandemic. Objective. We aimed to explore the impact of the pandemic on community-dwelling individuals with mild-to-moderate dementia and compare responses with pre-pandemic data. Methods. During the second wave of the pandemic we conducted structured telephone interviews with 173 people with dementia and 242 carers acting as informants, all of whom had previously participated in the IDEAL cohort. Where possible we benchmarked responses against pre-pandemic data. Results. Significant perceived negative impacts were identified in cognitive and functional skills and ability to engage in self-care and manage everyday activities, along with increased levels of loneliness and discontinuity in sense of self and a decline in perceived capability to ‘live well’. Compared to pre-pandemic data there were lower levels of pain, depression and anxiety, higher levels of optimism, and better satisfaction with family support. There was little impact on physical health, mood, social connections and relationships, or perceptions of neighbourhood characteristics. Conclusion. Efforts to mitigate negative impacts of pandemic-related restrictions and restore quality of life could focus on reablement to address the effects on participation in everyday activities, creating opportunities for social contact to reduce loneliness, and personalised planning to reconnect people with their pre-COVID selves. Such efforts may build on the resilience demonstrated by people with dementia and carers in coping with the pandemic.
  • Refugee COVID report 1: Getting the message. On official advice around COVID19 for asylum seeking and refugee communities in Bradford

    Haith-Cooper, Melanie; Rattray, Marcus; Wareham, A.; McCarthy, R. (2021-01)
    In this report we focus on refugee and asylum seekers views on receiving, understanding and improving messages about public health advice. Refugees and asylum seekers as a group have incomplete access to television and WIFI or data to access the information they need in they way they prefer. Refugees and asylum seekers have constructive suggestions on how to improve key messages so they can be better understood. There is an ongoing risk to refugee and asylum seeker health, and population health if people are unable to receive official messages in a way that is relevant to them.
  • Living well with dementia: what is possible and how to promote it

    Quinn, Catherine; Pickett, James A.; Litherland, R.; Morris, R.G.; Martyr, A.; Clare, L. (2021)
    Key points: The focus on living well with dementia encourages a more positive and empowering approach. The right support can improve the experience of living with dementia. An holistic approach to assessing the needs of people with dementia and identifying the factors that impact on their well-being is essential. Enabling people to live better requires a broad approach that encompasses both health and social systems and the wider community.
  • Psychological and social factors associated with coexisting frailty and cognitive impairment: A systematic review

    Ellwood, Alison; Mountain, Gail; Quinn, Catherine (2021)
    Those living with coexistent frailty and cognitive impairment are at risk of poorer health outcomes. Research often focuses on identifying biological factors. This review sought to identify the association psychological and social factors have with coexisting physical and cognitive decline. Six databases were systematically searched in July 2020. Studies included individuals aged 60 years or older identified as being both frail and cognitively impaired. A narrative synthesis examined patterns within the data. Nine studies were included, most employed a cross-sectional design. Depression was investigated by all nine studies, those with coexistent frailty and cognitive impairment had higher levels of depressive symptoms than peers. Findings were mixed on social factors, although broadly indicate lower education, living alone and lower material wealth were more frequent in those living with coexistent decline. Further research is needed to explore potentially modifiable psychological and social factors which could lead to the development of supportive interventions.
  • Impact of dementia care education and training on health and social care staff knowledge, attitudes and confidence: a cross-sectional survey

    Parveen, Sahdia; Smith, S.J.; Sass, C.; Oyebode, Jan R.; Capstick, Andrea; Dennison, Alison; Surr, C.A. (2021-01-19)
    The aim of this study was to establish the impact of dementia education and training on the knowledge, attitudes and confidence of health and social care staff. The study also aimed to identify the most effective features (content and pedagogical) of dementia education and training. Cross-sectional survey study. Data collection occurred in 2017. Health and social care staff in the UK including acute care, mental health community care trusts, primary care and care homes. All health and social care staff who had completed dementia education and training meeting the minimal standards as set by Health Education England, within the past 5 years were invited to participate in an online survey. A total of 668 health and social care staff provided informed consent and completed an online survey, and responses from 553 participants were included in this study. The majority of the respondents were of white British ethnicity (94.4%) and identified as women (88.4%). Knowledge, attitude and confidence of health and social care staff. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted. Staff characteristics, education and training content variables and pedagogical factors were found to account for 29% of variance in staff confidence (F=4.13, p<0.001), 22% of variance in attitude (knowledge) (F=3.80, p<001), 18% of the variance in staff knowledge (F=2.77, p<0.01) and 14% of variance in staff comfort (attitude) (F=2.11, p<0.01). The results suggest that dementia education and training has limited impact on health and social care staff learning outcomes. While training content variables were important when attempting to improve staff knowledge, more consideration should be given to pedagogical factors when training is aiming to improve staff attitude and confidence.
  • Fidelity and the impact of patient safety huddles on teamwork and safety culture: an evaluation of the Huddle Up for Safer Healthcare (HUSH) project.

    Lamming, Laura; Montague, Jane; Crosswaite, Kate; Faisal, Muhammad; McDonach, E.; Mohammed, A. Mohammed; Cracknell, A.; Lovatt, A.; Slater, B. (2021-10-01)
    The Patient Safety Huddle (PSH) is a brief multidisciplinary daily meeting held to discuss threats to patient safety and actions to mitigate risk. Despite growing interest and application of huddles as a mechanism for improving safety, evidence of their impact remains limited. There is also variation in how huddles are conceived and implemented with insufficient focus on their fidelity (the extent to which delivered as planned) and potential ways in which they might influence outcomes. The Huddle Up for Safer Healthcare (HUSH) project attempted to scale up the implementation of patient safety huddles (PSHs) in five hospitals - 92 wards - across three UK NHS Trusts. This paper aims to assess their fidelity, time to embed, and impact on teamwork and safety culture. A multi-method Developmental Evaluation was conducted. The Stages of Implementation Checklist (SIC) was used to determine time taken to embed PSHs. Observations were used to check embedded status and fidelity of PSH. A Teamwork and Safety Climate survey (TSC) was administered at two time-points: pre- and post-embedding. Changes in TSC scores were calculated for Trusts, job role and clinical speciality. Observations confirmed PSHs were embedded in 64 wards. Mean fidelity score was 4.9/9. PSHs frequently demonstrated a 'fear free' space while Statistical Process Control charts and historical harms were routinely omitted. Analysis showed a positive change for the majority (26/27) of TSC questions and the overall safety grade of the ward. PSHs are feasible and effective for improving teamwork and safety culture, especially for nurses. PSH fidelity criteria may need adjusting to include factors deemed most useful by frontline staff. Future work should examine inter-disciplinary and role-based differences in TSC outcomes.
  • Moving and handling and managing physiological deterioration of deceased children in hospice cool rooms: practice guidelines for care after death

    Tatterton, Michael J.; Honour, A.; Billington, D.; Kirkby, L.; Lyon, J.A.; Lyon, N.; Gaskin, G. (2021)
    Children’s hospices provide a range of services for babies, children and young people who have life-shortening conditions, including care after death in specialist ‘cool bedrooms’. Caring for children after death is a challenging area of hospice care, with variation seen within, and between organisations. The study aims to identify current practices and to produce guidelines that promote safe practice in moving and handling and managing physiological deterioration of children after death. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 54 British children’s hospices; 33 responded (=62% of hospices). Variation in the way in which children’s hospices delivered care after death was identified, in terms of the length of stay, care provision and equipment used, owing to demands of individual families and the experience and confidence of practitioners. Internal variation in practice can lead to practitioner anxiety, and risk-taking when providing care, particularly in the presence of family members. Practice recommendations have been made that reflect the practical demands of caring for a child’s body after death; these have been split into two parts: moving and handling considerations and managing physiological deterioration. These recommendations should be used to support the development of policy and practice, allowing organisations to standardise staff expectations and to support practitioners when caring for children after death.
  • Moving and handling children after death: an inductive thematic analysis of the factors that influence decision-making by children’s hospice staff

    Tatterton, Michael J.; Honour, A.; Kirby, L.; Billington, D. (Lippincott Wolters Kluwer, 2021)
    Hospices for children and adolescents in the United Kingdom provide care to the bodies of deceased children, in specially-designed chilled bedrooms called ‘cool rooms’. In an effort to develop resources to support hospice practitioners to provide this specialist area of care, the study aimed to identify the factors that influence decision-making when moving and handling children’s bodies after death in a hospice cool bedroom. An internet-based survey was sent to all practitioners employed by one children’s hospice. A total of 94.9% of eligible staff responded (n=56). An inductive approach to thematic analysis was undertaken, using a six-phase methodological framework. Three core themes were identified that inform practitioners’ perception of appropriateness of moving and handling decisions: care of the body, stages of care, and method of handling. The complexity of decision-making and variation in practice was identified. Practitioners relied on both analytical and initiative decision-making, with more experienced practitioners using an intuitive approach. Evidence-based policy and training influence the perception of appropriateness, and the decisions and behaviour of practitioners. The development of a policy and education framework would support practitioners in caring for children’s bodies after death, standardising expectations and measures of competence in relation to moving and handling tasks.
  • Destitution in pregnancy: Forced migrant women’s lived experience

    Ellul, R.; McCarthy, R.; Haith-Cooper, Melanie (2020-11-02)
    Forced migrant women are increasingly becoming destitute whilst pregnant. Destitution may exacerbate their poor underlying physical and mental health. There is little published research that examines this, and studies are needed to ensure midwifery care addresses the specific needs of these women. This study aimed to explore vulnerable migrant women's lived experience of being pregnant and destitute. Six in-depth individual interviews with forced migrant women who had been destitute during their pregnancy were conducted over one year. A lack of food and being homeless impacted on women's physical and mental health. Women relied on support from the voluntary sector to fill the gaps in services not provided by their local authorities. Although midwives were generally kind and helpful, there was a limit to how they could support the women. There is a gap in support provided by local authorities working to government policies and destitute migrant pregnant women should not have to wait until 34 weeks gestation before they can apply for support. Home office policy needs to change to ensure pregnant migrant women receive support throughout their pregnancy.
  • A systematic review of perinatal social support interventions for asylum-seeking and refugee women residing in Europe

    Balaam, M.C.; Kingdon, C.; Haith-Cooper, Melanie (2021)
    Asylum-seeking and refugee women currently residing in Europe face unique challenges in the perinatal period. A range of social support interventions have been developed to address these challenges. However, little is known about which women value and why. A critical interpretive synthesis was undertaken using peer reviewed and grey literature to explore the nature, context and impact of these perinatal social support interventions on the wellbeing of asylum-seeking and refugee women. Four types of interventions were identified which had varying impacts on women’s experiences. The impacts of the interventions were synthesised into five themes: Alleviation of being alone, Safety and trust, Practical knowledge and learning, being cared for and emotional support, and increased confidence in and beyond the intervention. The interventions which were most valued by women were those using a community-based befriending/peer support approach as these provided the most holistic approach to addressing women’s needs.
  • 'Wise up to cancer’; adapting a community-based health intervention to increase UK South Asian women’s uptake of cancer screening

    Payne, Daisy; Haith-Cooper, Melanie; Almas, Nisa (2021)
    UK South Asian women are less likely to engage with cancer screening than the general population and present later with more advanced disease. Tailored interventions are needed to address barriers to these women accessing screening services. 'Wise up to cancer' is a community-based health intervention designed to increase cancer screening uptake. It has been implemented within the general population and a study was undertaken to implement it within a South Asian female community. This paper explores one workstream of the wider 'Wise up to Cancer' study which involved working out how best to adapt the baseline questionnaire (the first part of the intervention) for South Asian women in an inner-city location in Northern England. The aim of this workstream was to evaluate what worked well when implementing the adapted 'Wise up to Cancer' with South Asian women. In 2018, we conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews and focus group with 14 key stakeholders; women who had received the intervention, health champions and community workers to explore their perspectives on how the adapted intervention worked within a South Asian female community. The interviews were audio recorded or (notes taken), data were transcribed verbatim and the dataset was thematically analysed. We found that training peers as community health champions to deliver the intervention to address language and cultural barriers increased participant engagement, was beneficial for the peers and supported participants who revealed difficult social issues they may not have otherwise discussed. Accessing women in established community groups, following planned activities such as English language classes worked but flexibility was needed to meet individual women's needs. Further research is needed to explore the impact of adapting 'Wise up to Cancer' for this community in terms of engaging with cancer screening.
  • A study to assess the feasibility of using a novel digital animation to increase physical activity levels in asylum seeking communities

    Montague, Jane; Haith-Cooper, Melanie (2021)
    The mental health benefits of physical activity and exercise are well-documented and asylum seekers who may have poor mental health could benefit from undertaking recommended levels of physical activity or exercise. Digital mobile applications are increasingly seen as feasible to precipitate behaviour change and could be a means to encourage asylum seekers to increase their levels of physical activity and exercise. This paper reports on a study that aimed to assess the feasibility of asylum seekers using the digital animation as a tool to change behaviour and increase their physical activity and exercise levels. A feasibility study underpinned by the principles of the COM-B behaviour change model was undertaken in West Yorkshire, UK, in 2019. Thirty participants were purposively recruited and interviewed. Peer interpreters were used as necessary. Deductive thematic analysis was undertaken to analyse the data. Overall, participants were positive about the feasibility of asylum seekers using the application as a behaviour change intervention. All expressed the view that it was easy to follow and would motivate them to increase their physical activity levels. Participants identified facilitators to this as the simplicity of the key messages, the cultural neutrality of the graphics and the availability of the mobile application in different languages. Identified barriers related to the dialect and accents in the translations and the over-simplicity of the application. This study has identified that a targeted digital animation intervention could help asylum seekers change their behaviour and hence improve their health and well-being. In designing such interventions, however, researchers must strongly consider co-design from an early stage as this is an important way to ensure that the development of an intervention is fit for purpose for different groups.
  • Does awareness of condition help people with mild-to-moderate dementia to live well?

    Alexander, C.M.; Martyr, A.; Gamble, L.D.; Savage, S.A.; Quinn, Catherine; Morris, R.G.; Clare, L. (2021-09-25)
    People living with dementia vary in awareness of their abilities. We explored awareness of the condition and diagnosis in people with mild-to-moderate dementia, and how this relates to quality of life, well-being, life satisfaction, and caregiver stress. This study was a cross-sectional exploratory analysis of data from the IDEAL cohort, which recruited people with dementia living at home and available caregivers from 29 research sites in Great Britain. Our study included 917 people with mild-to-moderate dementia and 755 carers. Low and high awareness groups were derived from self-reported responses to a dementia representation measure. Logistic regression was used to explore predictors of awareness of condition and diagnosis using demographic, cognitive, functional and psychological measures, and the relationship with quality of life, well-being and life satisfaction (‘living well’), and caregiver stress. There were 83 people with low awareness of their condition. The remaining 834 people showed some awareness and 103 of these had high awareness of their condition and diagnosis. Psychosocial factors were stronger predictors of awareness than cognitive and functional ability. Those with higher awareness reported lower mood, and lower scores on indices of living well as well as lower optimism, self-efficacy and self-esteem. Low awareness was more likely in those aged 80y and above, and living in more socially deprived areas. No relationship was seen between caregiver stress and awareness. Awareness of the condition and diagnosis varies in people with mild-to-moderate dementia and is relevant to the capability to live well. Awareness should be considered in person-centered clinical care.
  • Can handheld POC capillary lactate measurement be used with arterial and venous laboratory testing methods in the identification of sepsis?

    Lightowler, Bryan; Hoswell, Anthony (Mark Allen Group, 2016)
    The aim of this review was to examine whether the measurement of lactate in capillary blood samples using point-of-care handheld analysers corresponds sufficiently closely with arterial and venous whole-blood samples analysed by hospital central laboratory or blood gas analyser to be used interchangeably. A systematic search, informed by focused inclusion/exclusion criteria, was performed using multiple databases up to October 2015. A total of 65 articles were considered to have potential relevance and were evaluated in full text, of which ultimately five articles met all inclusion/exclusion criteria, and a final four were selected after data extraction and quality appraisal. All four studies found a predominantly upward bias in the measurement of lactate in capillary samples tested using a handheld point-of-care device over arterial or venous samples tested by laboratory methods or blood gas analyser. In terms of correlation, there was consensus between the studies that the strength of association between the two methods of measurement was statistically significant. Three studies directly examined the extent of agreement between point-of-care capillary lactate measurements and those of laboratory or blood gas analyser reference determined to ±2 standard deviations; 95% confidence intervals, and report contextually broad limits of agreement, identifying a potential for both over triage and, to a lesser extent, under triage. The findings of the review do not support interchangeable use of handheld fingertip point-of-care lactate measurement with laboratory or blood gas analyser methods in the identification of sepsis.
  • The ambulance service advanced practitioner's role in supporting care homes: a qualitative study of care staff experiences

    Harvey, C., Froggatt, S., Lightowler, B. and Hodge, A.,; Harvey, C.; Froggatt, S.; Lightowler, Bryan; Hodge, A. (Mark Allen Group, 2021-08-02)
    The demand from care homes on NHS services continues to rise, with little evidence of ambulance service contribution in this area. The Yorkshire Ambulance Service provides an advanced practitioner model to support care homes in Sheffield, as an alternative to calling 999. This study investigated the experiences and needs of the care home staff who use the ambulance service advanced practitioner model. This qualitative study conducted semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with 19 staff members from 10 different care home settings. Thematic analysis using a combination of NVivo and manual coding was undertaken. The three key themes from the interviews were variations in service demand, the service user’s expectations and experience, and benefits to residents. Participants reported that good community services reduced the need to call 999, empowering carers to support residents to remain in the community. Care homes require comprehensive services that meet their needs. The advanced practitioner model provided by the ambulance service supports this, preventing unnecessary 999 calls and fitting with other community service provision.
  • Advancing the Understanding of the Role of Responsible AI in the Continued Use of IoMT in Healthcare

    Al-Dhaen, Fatema; Hou, Jiachen; Rana, Nripendra P.; Weerakkody, Vishanth J.P. (Information Systems Frontiers, 2021)
    This paper examines the continuous intention by healthcare professionals to use the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) in combination with responsible artificial intelligence (AI). Using the theory of Diffusion of Innovation (DOI), a model was developed to determine the continuous intention to use IoMT taking into account the risks and complexity involved in using AI. Data was gathered from 276 healthcare professionals through a survey questionnaire across hospitals in Bahrain. Empirical outcomes reveal nine significant relationships amongst the constructs. The findings show that despite contradictions associated with AI, continuous intention to use behaviour can be predicted during the diffusion of IoMT. This study advances the under- standing of the role of responsible AI in the continued use of IoMT in healthcare and extends DOI to address the diffusion of two innovations concurrently.
  • Predictive accuracy of enhanced versions of the on-admission National Early Warning Score in estimating the risk of COVID-19 for unplanned admission to hospital: a retrospective development and validation study

    Faisal, Muhammad; Mohammed, A. Mohammed; Richardson, D.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Fiori, M.; Beatson, K. (2021-09-13)
    The novel coronavirus SARS-19 produces 'COVID-19' in patients with symptoms. COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital require early assessment and care including isolation. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its updated version NEWS2 is a simple physiological scoring system used in hospitals, which may be useful in the early identification of COVID-19 patients. We investigate the performance of multiple enhanced NEWS2 models in predicting the risk of COVID-19. Our cohort included unplanned adult medical admissions discharged over 3 months (11 March 2020 to 13 June 2020 ) from two hospitals (YH for model development; SH for external model validation). We used logistic regression to build multiple prediction models for the risk of COVID-19 using the first electronically recorded NEWS2 within ± 24 hours of admission. Model M0' included NEWS2; model M1' included NEWS2 + age + sex, and model M2' extends model M1' with subcomponents of NEWS2 (including diastolic blood pressure + oxygen flow rate + oxygen scale). Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (c statistic), calibration (graphically), and clinical usefulness at NEWS2 ≥ 5. The prevalence of COVID-19 was higher in SH (11.0 %=277/2520) than YH (8.7 %=343/3924) with a higher first NEWS2 scores ( SH 3.2 vs YH 2.8) but similar in-hospital mortality (SH 8.4 % vs YH 8.2 %). The c-statistics for predicting the risk of COVID-19 for models M0',M1',M2' in the development dataset were: M0': 0.71 (95 %CI 0.68-0.74); M1': 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64-0.70) and M2': 0.78 (95 %CI 0.75-0.80)). For the validation datasets the c-statistics were: M0' 0.65 (95 %CI 0.61-0.68); M1': 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64-0.70) and M2': 0.72 (95 %CI 0.69-0.75) ). The calibration slope was similar across all models but Model M2' had the highest sensitivity (M0' 44 % (95 %CI 38-50 %); M1' 53 % (95 %CI 47-59 %) and M2': 57 % (95 %CI 51-63 %)) and specificity (M0' 75 % (95 %CI 73-77 %); M1' 72 % (95 %CI 70-74 %) and M2': 76 % (95 %CI 74-78 %)) for the validation dataset at NEWS2 ≥ 5. Model M2' appears to be reasonably accurate for predicting the risk of COVID-19. It may be clinically useful as an early warning system at the time of admission especially to triage large numbers of unplanned hospital admissions.

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