Estimating the number of cars in UK and US households

Abstract

The quest towards resolving concerns about transportation energy consumption and emissions across nations has created more interests to investigate factors responsible for households’ car ownership. While literature holds an extensive body of investigation usually compartmentalised in individual different disciplines, limited efforts have been made to promote inter-linkages of this strand of research across different disciplines. To fill this gap, this study developed an integrating Multinomial logit (MNL) model to examine the impact of some rarely-investigated and conventional explanatory variables, including: ethnicity, accommodation tenure, settlement nature, mental belief, environmental concern, geographical regions, household structure, driving licence, number of household income earners and household income, on car ownership. Analysis based on rich data sets of British Household Survey and US Consumer Expenditure Survey found not only the conventional explanatory variables to be significantly linked to the number of cars in the US and UK households, but also the rarely-investigated psychological variables were found to be significantly linked as well. As Socio-demography, Geography and Psychology impact on how people and households process information and assess market offers (e.g., products and services), this study presents findings which have beneficial implications for policymakers and transportations planners, including those who would like to alter people’s behaviour from private car ownership to public transportation use, car sellers in terms of how to identify and reach potential customers, provision of alternative forecasting approaches to car ownership scholars as well as possible consideration for general car ownership decision making. Caution should be taken when interpreting the relationship between psychological factors and car ownership since the psychological factors adopted are measure representatives from databases used with limitations in the factor structure for a representative sample of the countries’ population.