Automated Prediction of Solar Flares Using SDO Data. The Development of An Automated Computer System for Predicting Solar Flares Based on SDO Satellite Data Using HMI Images Analysis, Visualisation, and Deep Learning Technologies

Abstract

Nowadays, space weather has become an international issue to the world's countries because of its catastrophic effect on space-borne and ground-based systems, and industries, impacting our lives. One of the main solar activities that is considered as a major driver of space weather is solar flares. Solar flares can be defined as an enormous eruption in the sun's atmosphere. This phenomenon happens when magnetic energy stored in twisted magnetic fields, usually near sunspots, is suddenly released. Yet, their occurrence is not fully understood. These flares can affect the Earth by the release of massive quantities of charged particles and electromagnetic radiation. Investigating the associations between solar flares and sunspot groups is helpful in comprehending the possible cause and effect relationships among solar flares and sunspot features. 01 This thesis proposes a new approach developed by integrating advances in image processing, machine learning, and deep learning with advances in solar physics to extract valuable knowledge from historical solar data related to sunspot regions and flares. This dissertation aims to achieve the following: 1) We developed a new prediction algorithm based on the Automated Solar Activity Prediction system (ASAP) system. The proposed algorithm updates the ASAP system by extending the training process and optimizing the learning rules to the optimize performance better. Two neural networks are used in the proposed approach. The first neural network is used to predict whether a specific sunspot class at a particular time is likely to produce a significant flare or not. The second neural network is used to predict the type of this flare, X or M-class. 2) We proposed a new system called the ASAP_Deep system built on top of the ASAP system introduced in [6] but improves the system with an updated deep learning-based prediction capability. In addition, we successfully apply Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to the sunspot group image without any pr-eprocessing or feature extraction. Moreover, our system results are considerably better, especially for the false alarm ratio (FAR); this reduces the losses resulting from the protection measures applied by companies. In addition, the proposed system achieves a relatively high score of True Skill Statistic (TSS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). 3) We presented a novel system that used the Deep Belief Networks (DBNs) to predict the solar flares occurrence. The input data are SDO/HMI Intensitygram and Magnetogram images. The model outputs are "Flare or No-Flare" of significant flare occurrence (M and X-class flares). In addition, we created a dataset from the sunspots groups extracted from SDO HMI Intensitygram images. We compared the results obtained from the complete suggested system with those of three previous flare forecast models using several statistical metrics. In our view, these developed methods and results represent an excellent initial step toward enhancing the accuracy of flare forecasting, enhance our understanding of flare occurrence, and develop efficient flare prediction systems. The systems, implementation, results, and future work are explained in this dissertation.