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    Element failure probability of soil slope under consideration of random groundwater level

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    Guo_et_al_IJG (585.8Kb)
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    Publication date
    2021-07
    Author
    Li, Z.
    Chen, Y.
    Guo, Yakun
    Zhang, X.
    Du, S.
    Keyword
    Soil slope
    Reliability
    Element failure probability
    Upper bound method
    Finite element discretization
    Stochastic programming
    Rights
    © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0002063
    Peer-Reviewed
    Yes
    Open Access status
    Green
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    The instability of soil slopes is directly related to both the shear parameters of the soil material and the groundwater, which usually causes some uncertainty. In this study, a novel method, the element failure probability method (EFP), is proposed to analyse the failure of soil slopes. Based on the upper bound theory, finite element discretization, and the stochastic programming theory, an upper bound stochastic programming model is established by simultaneously considering the randomness of shear parameters and groundwater level to analyse the reliability of slopes. The model is then solved by using the Monte-Carlo method based on the random shear parameters and groundwater levels. Finally, a formula is derived for the element failure probability (EFP) based on the safety factors and velocity fields of the upper bound method. The probability of a slope failure can be calculated by using the safety factor, and the distribution of failure regions in space can be determined by using the location information of the element. The proposed method is validated by using a classic example. This study has theoretical value for further research attempting to advance the application of plastic limit analysis to analyse slope reliability.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/18421
    Version
    Accepted manuscript
    Citation
    Li Z, Chen Y, Guo Y et al (2021) Element failure probability of soil slope under consideration of random groundwater level. International Journal of Geomechanics. 21(7).
    Link to publisher’s version
    https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0002063
    Type
    Article
    Collections
    Engineering and Digital Technology Publications

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