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    Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability and Operational Simulation under Uncertainties

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    Publication date
    2020
    Author
    Dao, Cuong D.
    Kazemtabrizi, B.
    Crabtree, C.J.
    Keyword
    Failure cost
    Fuzzy logic
    Offshore wind energy
    Operational simulation
    Reliability
    Uncertainty
    Rights
    (c) 2020 The Authors. This is an Open Access article distributed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
    Peer-Reviewed
    Yes
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    The fast‐growing offshore wind energy sector brings opportunities to provide a sustainable energy resource but also challenges in offshore wind turbine (OWT) operation and maintenance management. Existing operational simulation models assume deterministic input reliability and failure cost data, whereas OWT reliability and failure costs vary depending on several factors, and it is often not possible to specify them with certainty. This paper focuses on modelling reliability and failure cost uncertainties and their impacts on OWT operational and economic performance. First, we present a probabilistic method for modelling reliability data uncertainty with a quantitative parameter estimation from available reliability data resources. Then, failure cost uncertainty is modelled using fuzzy logic that relates a component's failure cost to its capital cost and downtime. A time‐sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented to simulate operational sequences of OWT components. This operation profile is later fed into a fuzzy cost assessment and coupled with a wind power curve model to evaluate OWT availability, energy production, operational expenditures and levelised cost of energy. A case study with different sets of reliability data is presented, and the results show that impacts of uncertainty on OWT performance are magnified in databases with low components' reliability. In addition, both reliability and cost uncertainties can contribute to more than 10% of the cost of energy variation. This research can provide practitioners with methods to handle data uncertainties in reliability and operational simulation of OWTs and help them to quantify the variability and dependence of wind power performance on data uncertainties.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17979
    Version
    Published version
    Citation
    Dao CD, Kazemtabrizi B and Crabtree CJ (2020) Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability and Operational Simulation under Uncertainties. Wind Energy. Accepted for publication.
    Link to publisher’s version
    https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2526
    Type
    Article
    Collections
    Engineering and Informatics Publications

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