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2021Rights
(c) 2021 BE Press. Full-text reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.Peer-Reviewed
YesOpen Access status
openAccess
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Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.Version
Accepted manuscriptCitation
Fry J, Smart O, Serbera J-P and Klar B (2021) A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. 17(1): 67-75.Link to Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0088Type
Articleae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0088