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    The Impact of External Shocks on Nigeria’s GDP Performance within the Context of the Global Financial Crisis

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    Author
    Akpan, Nkereuwem I.
    Supervisor
    Jalilian, Hossein
    Arora, Rashmi
    Keyword
    External shocks
    Global financial crisis
    Business cycles
    Vector autoregression
    Impulse response function
    Innovations
    Variance decomposition
    Function
    Vector error correction
    Nigeria
    Rights
    Creative Commons License
    The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a Creative Commons Licence.
    Institution
    University of Bradford
    Department
    Faculty of Management, Law and Social Sciences
    Awarded
    2018
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria’s output performance for the period 1981 – 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria’s output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria’s output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some viable information in explaining the variabilities in Nigeria’s output performance over the horizon. The comparison between the results of the VECM and the unrestricted VAR shows that the unrestricted VAR model outperformed the VECM. The overall result of the study confirms the view about the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to external shocks. These shocks explain more than half of the variance in real output performance and have varying effects on output performance in Nigeria. The dynamic response of output performance to each of the defined shock variables show that output performance responds rapidly to the shock variables, while its response to the domestic economic variables is seemingly moderate. Finally, the variance decomposition show that international crude oil price and terms of trade have the largest share in accounting for the variability in output performance, followed closely by the shares of capital inflows and monetary policy.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17454
    Type
    Thesis
    Qualification name
    PhD
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