Impact of oil revenue volatility on the real exchange rate and the structure of economy: Empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Iraq

Abstract

This thesis analyses the extent to which a boom in a particular export commodity sector (i.e., oil) affects relative price of non-tradable goods against tradable goods, the real exchange rate and competitiveness in the rest of the economy: This problem has been analysed in the early stage by (Corden and Neary 1982) with the so-called ‘Dutch-disease’. As a result, booming sector (oil Sector) the country’s currency appreciates, thereby reducing the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sector in international market. This thesis examines whether Dutch Disease is present in Iraq in the light of having not study about Dutch Disease phenomena. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy. It produces some empirical evidence for the explanation non-tradable goods and contraction of tradable goods sector due to booming oil sector and appreciation real exchange rate and made tradable goods sector become uncompetitive for export. The main findings form this thesis that the Iraqi economy was subject to have the Dutch disease phenomena during the boom. Some of the indications of the disease, remarkably the increase of relative prices, the real exchange rate appreciation, contraction tradable goods sector and expansion of nontraded goods output were applicable. The study uses annual time series data sourced from home and international agencies from 1970 to 2013. Due to problem with endogeneity, the data are analysed through the use of two stages least square. Finally, the thesis discusses briefly some policy measures that will help avoid the issue of appreciation real exchange rate and changing the structure of economy out of tradable goods to non-tradable goods sector.