Pricing of time-varying illiquidity within the Eurozone: Evidence using a Markov switching liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model

Abstract

This paper investigates time-varying characteristics of illiquidity and the pricing of its risk using a liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (L-CAPM). Collecting data from a pool of Eurozone countries between 1990 and 2018, we employ Markov switching models to assess the degree of persistence of illiquidity shocks. Contrary to prior research, which largely makes use of autoregressive (AR) processes, we provide strong evidence that illiquidity is time-varying and the persistence of shocks determines two distinct regimes characterised by high and low illiquidity. We assess pricing of illiquidity risk by developing and empirically testing a conditional L-CAPM model, where different regimes constitute priced risk factors for the cross-section of stock returns. We extend previous unconditional versions of L-CAPM models and we show that the various channels through which illiquidity affects asset returns and price of risks are time-varying. We find strong support for our conditional L-CAPM and our results are robust to alternative specifications and estimation techniques. These findings have important implications for portfolio management practices and are relevant to portfolio and risk managers and regulatory institutions.