Developing a Risk Assessment Model for non-Technical Risk in Energy Sector

Abstract

Risk Management is one of the most relevant approaches and systematic applications of strategies, procedures and practices management that have been introduced in literatures for identifying and analysing risks which exist through the whole life of a product ,a process or services. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a risk assessment model that will be implemented to the energy sector, particularly to power plants. This model combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique with a new enhanced Balance Score Card (BSC). AHP is constructed to determine the weights and the priorities for all perspectives and risk indicators that involved in the BSC. The novelty in this paper is not only in using the BSC for risk assessment, but also, in developing a new BSC with six perspectives, which are sustainability perspective; economic; learning and growth; internal and operational business process; supply chain and customer/demand perspective. Another three contributions of this paper are firstly, including the sustainability dimension in BSC, and covering nine risk categories, which comprise 84 risk indicators that have been distributed across the six risk BSC perspectives. Secondly, assessing the non-technical risks in power plants and finally, this research will concentrate on the strategic level instead of the operational level where the majority of researches focus on latter but the former is far less researched. The created model will provide an effective measurement for the risks particularly, in the power plants sector. The results of this study demonstrate that the supply chain risks perspective is the keystone for the decision making process. Furthermore, these risk indicators with the new structure of BSC with six perspectives, help in achieving the organisation mission and vision in addition to affording a robust risk assessment model. The inputs of this model are composed from a previous stage using a modified Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) (which has been used the Exponential Weighted Geometric Mean (EWGM)) to understand and analyse all risks, after which, the results of the developed FMEA which are the Risk Priority Numbers (RPN’s), have been used to build the AHP-BSC risk model. These risks are collected with difficulty from various literatures. This study will be validated in the next stage in power plants in the Middle East.