Doomed to fail? Convergence and the Eurozone crisis

Abstract

This chapter reviews the substantive issue of monetary union through evaluating countries readiness for entry utilising the experience of the European Union’s process of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The European single currency system came under unprecedented strain following the Global Financial Crisis induced Great Recession and there is little reason to assume that this will diminish, in any significant way, in the near future. Crucially it is important to reflect that each economy is unique in its blend of sectoral strengths and weaknesses and comparative advantage, therefore the national interest will be distinctively different for each potential participant. In particular, there is no set rule in which to weigh the relative merits of the arguments associated with membership of a monetary union. In terms of the eurozone the chapter critically evaluates the convergence criteria stipulated in the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and empirically reviews the compliance of EU member states. It questions whether the TEU criteria satisfactorily perform this role, such that the convergence criteria present a series of financial tests, of which some are theoretically spurious, while the remainder are inadequate to indicate the range of consequences of participation. Finally, the chapter undertakes an analysis of the macroeconomic performance of Greece. Specifically, it focuses on the main features, economic events and key economic indicators (GDP per capita, inflation, unemployment, twin deficit of current account and net lending/borrowing, output gap and gross debt) during the crucial 2000-09 period, between eurozone membership and the crisis.