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dc.contributor.authorJackson, Karen*
dc.contributor.authorShepotylo, Oleksandr*
dc.date.accessioned2018-06-25T11:06:55Z
dc.date.available2018-06-25T11:06:55Z
dc.date.issued2018-06
dc.identifier.citationJackson K and Shepotylo O (2018) Post-Brexit trade survival: looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling. 73: 317-328.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10454/16301
dc.descriptionYesen_US
dc.description.abstractAs the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010en_US
dc.rights© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.en_US
dc.subjectBrexiten_US
dc.subjectTransatlantic Trade and Investment Partnershipen_US
dc.subjectGravityen_US
dc.subjectUKen_US
dc.subjectEUen_US
dc.titlePost-Brexit trade survival: looking beyond the European Unionen_US
dc.status.refereedYesen_US
dc.date.Accepted2018-04-17
dc.date.application2018-05-10
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.type.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US


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