The Paradox of North Korea's nuclear diplomacy: Insights from conflict transformation theory

Abstract

This paper develops a novel approach to understanding North Korea's nuclear policy on the basis of conflict transformation theory. By conceptualizing the situation on the Korean peninsula as a protracted conflict (either between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea or North Korea and the United States), new insights into the nature of the protracted cycle of engagement and conflict with North Korea can be developed. In this context, the role and trajectory of the nuclear program can be analyzed and both the failure of and the need for arms control negotiations understood. The paper shows that the use of conflict transformation theory provides an analytically coherent explanation of North Korean security policy and foreign policy behavior that fits the empirical evidence more closely than alternative approaches. The paper assesses the current policy of "strategic patience" vis-à-vis North Korea and demonstrates how it is based on false assumptions and involves risks that need to be addressed by the United States and the international community. This paper presents a novel approach to analyzing the puzzle of North Korean foreign policy behavior with important implications for understanding the nature of the conflict and possible conditions for its resolution.