Exploring Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in the Term Structure of CDS Spreads

Abstract

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore statistical arbitrage opportunities in the CDS spreads of North American companies. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade market-neutral portfolios while controlling for realistic transaction costs. Empirical results show that our arbitrage strategy is of significant economic value, and also cast doubt on the efficiency of the CDS market. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the market is less efficient when it is more volatile.