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dc.contributor.authorFildes, R.*
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, P.*
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal, Dilek*
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-19T13:15:51Z
dc.date.available2017-12-19T13:15:51Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citationFildes R, Goodwin P and Önkal D (2018) Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects. International Journal of Forecasting. 35(1): 144-156.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10454/14260
dc.descriptionYesen_US
dc.description.abstractDemand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP) but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information has either no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting suggests that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This was investigated in situations where forecasters could adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. The forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006
dc.rights(c) 2018 Elsevier. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)en_US
dc.subjectSales and operations planningen_US
dc.subjectBehavioural operations
dc.subjectInformation effects
dc.subjectForecaster behaviour
dc.subjectJudgmental forecasting
dc.titleUse and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effectsen_US
dc.status.refereedYesen_US
dc.date.Accepted2017-12-17
dc.date.application2018-02-19
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.type.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US


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