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dc.contributor.authorOnkal, Dilek*
dc.contributor.authorGonul, M.S.*
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, P.*
dc.contributor.authorThomson, M.*
dc.contributor.authorEsra, O.*
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-11T11:48:04Z
dc.date.available2017-10-11T11:48:04Z
dc.date.issued2017-01
dc.identifier.citationOnkal D, Gonul MS, Goodwin P et al (2017) Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users' reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility. International Journal of Forecasting. 33(1): 280-297.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10454/13388
dc.descriptionYesen_US
dc.description.abstractIn expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit weighting depends on the advisor’s experienced (reflecting the accuracy of their past forecasts), or presumed (based on their status) credibility. Compared to a control group, advice from a source with a high experienced credibility received a greater weighting, but having a low level of experienced credibility did not reduce the weighting. In contrast, a high presumed credibility did not increase the weighting relative to a control group, while a low presumed credibility decreased it. When there were opportunities for the two types of credibility to interact, a high experienced credibility tended to eclipse the presumed credibility if the advisees were non-experts. However, when the advisees were professionals, both the presumed and experienced credibility of the advisor were influential in determining the weight attached to the advice.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.12.009en_US
dc.rights© 2016 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
dc.subjectSource credibility; Presumed credibility; Experienced credibility; Advice; Forecasting; Information useen_US
dc.titleEvaluating expert advice in forecasting: users' reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibilityen_US
dc.status.refereedYesen_US
dc.date.Accepted2015-12-18
dc.date.application2016-04-25
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.type.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
refterms.dateFOA2018-07-28T02:06:22Z


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