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    Expansionary contractions and fiscal free lunches: too good to be true?

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    Publication date
    2017
    End of Embargo
    2019-09-12
    Author
    McManus, R.
    Ozkan, F.G.
    Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid
    Keyword
    Fiscal policy; Expansionary contractions; Fiscal free lunches; Austerity versus stimulus; Zero lower bound
    Peer-Reviewed
    yes
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibility of both `expansionary fiscal contractions' (austerity increasing output) and `fiscal free lunches' (expansions reducing government debt), arguments supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively, in recent debates. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible to be expansionary, and stimulus temporary, responsive and well-targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither are likely, especially during periods of economic distress.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10454/12115
    Version
    Accepted Manuscript
    Citation
    Mcmanus M, Ozkan FG and Trzeciakiewicz D (2017) Expansionary contractions and fiscal free lunches: too good to be true? The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Article in Press.
    Link to publisher’s version
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12269
    Type
    Article
    Notes
    The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo on 12 Sep 2019.
    Collections
    Management and Law Publications

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