Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorZharkova, Valentina V.*
dc.contributor.authorShepherd, Simon J.*
dc.contributor.authorPopova, E.*
dc.contributor.authorZharkov, Sergei I.*
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-13T10:57:25Z
dc.date.available2017-04-13T10:57:25Z
dc.date.issued2015-10
dc.identifier.citationZharkova V V, Shepherd SJ, Popova E and Zharkov SI (2015) Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. Scientific Reports. 5: Article number 15689.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10454/11803
dc.descriptionyesen_US
dc.description.abstractWe derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.isreferencedbyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep15689en_US
dc.rights© 2015 The Authors. Published open access by Nature Publishing under the CC BY licence (Creative Commons Attribution v4.0 International License).en_US
dc.subjectSolar activity; Solar cycles; Prediction; Temporal magnetic field variationsen_US
dc.titleHeartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescaleen_US
dc.status.refereedyesen_US
dc.date.Accepted2015-09-25
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.type.versionPublished versionen_US
refterms.dateFOA2018-07-26T09:41:53Z


Item file(s)

Thumbnail
Name:
Scientific reports.pdf
Size:
1.206Mb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Main article

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record