Threat analysis versus risk analysis in intelligence and security assessment

Abstract

A realisation of the relationships among the security terms threat, vulnerability and risk, led to a perception of inconsistency about the security assessment procedure in the defence and public security industry in Nigeria. This is a practice whereby threat analysis is usually over-emphasised to the detriment of vulnerability and risk analyses. An original misconception surrounding the term analysis, as employed in the Intelligence Cycle, and its opposite counterpart, synthesis, was suspect. This paper was designed to sort out the technical relationship between analysis and synthesis, with a view to exploiting the implications optimally. It was revealed that the two terms are opposite in meaning but need to be intricately inter-woven in their employment as evaluation techniques. Unfortunately, most intelligence and security “analysts” embark on analysis with little or no idea about synthesis, thus muddling up the two concepts to the advantage of analysis. This original misconception led to a culture of non systematism and haphazardness in the intelligence assessment procedure. This culture was transmitted, in situ, from intelligence „analysis‟ to security „analysis.‟ Thus, the terms vulnerability and risk in security assessment suffer an almost identical fate with synthesis. It is the same reason that is most probably responsible for the divergence in the security assessment procedure between the public and private segments of the security industry. The implications of this anomaly include the virtual disappearance of synthesist in the global professional vocabulary of intelligence and security organisations, except for India; with resultant inconsistencies in the definition of intelligence analysis, and a culture of lack of systematism and accountability in the security assessment procedure. It is proposed that the phrase intelligence analysis, as employed in intelligence processing, should be replaced with intelligence synthesis. Intelligence products should be made amenable to re-evaluation and accountability. In military and security operations, the object of security assessment should be risk analysis, as opposed to threat analysis. Newly suggested terminologies are analosynthesis, synthonalysis and equisynalysis. Similarly, thesis, as a synonym of dissertation, should be replaced with synthesis.