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Post-Brexit trade survival: looking beyond the European Union
Jackson, Karen Shepotylo, Oleksandr
Jackson, Karen
Shepotylo, Oleksandr
Publication Date
2018-06
End of Embargo
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© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
Peer-Reviewed
Yes
Open Access status
openAccess
Accepted for publication
17/04/2018
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Department
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Abstract
As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and
its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions
regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth
countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest
that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The
losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc.
However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further
minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.
Version
Accepted manuscript
Citation
Jackson K and Shepotylo O (2018) Post-Brexit trade survival: looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling. 73: 317-328.
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Article