An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain

We provide new evidence that current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain have become non-stationary after the adoption of the euro implying that there is no long-run stable relationship between savings and investment contrary to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. This can be taken as evidence of unsustainable current account balances and loss of solvency for the underlying economies. Using the ARDL methodology we also report a statistical association between fiscal balances and current account balances which implies that fiscal austerity can help these economies to reduce their current account deficits and restore their competitiveness. Our empirical evidence also suggests a particularly strong significant negative association between domestic investment and current account deficits. The magnitude of this latter effect may have important policy implications concerning the ways in which investment is financed to improve external competitiveness.

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10454/10493

Version

Published version

Citation

Pilbeam K and Litsios I (2015) An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Report No. 15/18. London, UK: Department of Economics, City University London.

Link to published version

http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/14074/

Type

Report