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Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media
Fry, John Binner, J.M.
Fry, John
Binner, J.M.
Publication Date
2016-03
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© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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openAccess
Accepted for publication
18/05/2015
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Abstract
Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.
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Published version
Citation
Fry J and Binner JM (2016) Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media. European Journal of Operational Research. 249(3): 1014-1023.
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Article