Hydro-climatic variability and peak discharge response in Zarrinehrud River Basin, Iran, between 1986 and 2018
Mohammadi, Farnaz Hanmaiahgari, P.R. Mohammadi, O. Mohammadi, M. Al-Qadami, E. Razi, M.A.M.
Mohammadi, Farnaz
Hanmaiahgari, P.R.
Mohammadi, O.
Mohammadi, M.
Al-Qadami, E.
Razi, M.A.M.
Publication Date
2025-06
End of Embargo
Supervisor
Rights
© 2025 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license
(https://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/).
Peer-Reviewed
Yes
Open Access status
openAccess
Accepted for publication
2025-05-31
Institution
Department
Awarded
Embargo end date
Additional title
Abstract
In recent years, both anthropogenic and climate changes have caused the depletion of surface water resources, shifts in rainfall and accelerations in temperature, which indicates the importance of their examination to flood forecasting analyses. This paper studies the importance of synchronised water management strategies, considering upstream and downstream dynamics using field data from 1986 to 2018. Seasonal and decadal variations show the need for adaptive management strategies to address potential climate change impacts on discharge, precipitation and temperature patterns in the Zarrinehrud River, Iran. The regression analysis was considered via R2 values, and the statistical analysis was regarded by p-values. The regression analysis of monthly river peak discharge indicates strong correlations between the discharge of specific months (September–October upstream, December–January downstream). By the 2000s and 2020s, both stations showed a shift in peak precipitation to the spring months (April–May for upstream and May–June for downstream). This confirms a synchronisation of rainfall trends, which are influenced by climate changes or regional hydrological patterns. This temporal offset between stations
confirms the spatial and seasonal variation in rainfall distribution across the basin. Higher temperatures during the dominant months, particularly late summer to early autumn, accelerate snowmelt from upstream catchments. This aligns with the river discharge peaks observed in the hydrograph. The statistical analysis of river peak discharge indicated that the Weibull (p-value = 0.0901) and the Lognormal (p-value = 0.1736) distributions are the best fitted distributions for the upstream and downstream stations, respectively.
Version
Published version
Citation
Mohammadi F, Pu JH, Guo Y et al (2025) Hydro-climatic variability and peak discharge response in Zarrinehrud River Basin, Iran, between 1986 and 2018. Atmosphere. 16(6): 681.
Link to publisher’s version
Link to published version
Link to Version of Record
Type
Article