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Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems

; 
Walker, M.
; 
Papadopoulos, Y.
; 
Rüde, E.
; 
Securius, P.
Publication Date
2016-10, 2016-10
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Keywords
Reliability analysis, Fault tree analysis, Dynamic fault trees, Temporal fault trees, Uncertainty analysis, Fuzzy set theory
Rights
© 2016 Elsevier. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
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Yes
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Accepted for publication
2016-05-31
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Engineering and Digital Technology Publications
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Kabir et al 2016
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Abstract
Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a powerful technique that is widely used for evaluating system safety and reliability. It can be used to assess the effects of combinations of failures on system behaviour but is unable to capture sequence dependent dynamic behaviour. A number of extensions to fault trees have been proposed to overcome this limitation. Pandora, one such extension, introduces temporal gates and temporal laws to allow dynamic analysis of temporal fault trees (TFTs). It can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. The quantitative evaluation of failure probability in Pandora TFTs is performed using exact probabilistic data about component failures. However, exact data can often be difficult to obtain. In this paper, we propose a method that combines expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory with Pandora TFTs to enable dynamic analysis of complex systems with limited or absent exact quantitative data. This gives Pandora the ability to perform quantitative analysis under uncertainty, which increases further its potential utility in the emerging field of model-based design and dependability analysis. The method has been demonstrated by applying it to a fault tolerant fuel distribution system of a ship, and the results are compared with the results obtained by other existing techniques.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17433
 http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17433
Version
Accepted manuscript
Citation
Kabir S, Walker M, Papadopoulos Y et al (2016) Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. 77: 20-37.
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Link to Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2016.05.006
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Article
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