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Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users' reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

Onkal, Dilek
; 
Gonul, M.S.
; 
Goodwin, P.
; 
Thomson, M.
; 
Esra, O.
Publication Date
2017-01
End of Embargo
Supervisor
Keywords
Source credibility, Presumed credibility, Experienced credibility, Advice, Forecasting, Information use
Rights
© 2016 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
Peer-Reviewed
Yes
Open Access status
openAccess
Accepted for publication
18/12/2015
Institution
Department
Awarded
Embargo end date
Collections
Management and Law Publications
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Additional title
Abstract
In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit weighting depends on the advisor’s experienced (reflecting the accuracy of their past forecasts), or presumed (based on their status) credibility. Compared to a control group, advice from a source with a high experienced credibility received a greater weighting, but having a low level of experienced credibility did not reduce the weighting. In contrast, a high presumed credibility did not increase the weighting relative to a control group, while a low presumed credibility decreased it. When there were opportunities for the two types of credibility to interact, a high experienced credibility tended to eclipse the presumed credibility if the advisees were non-experts. However, when the advisees were professionals, both the presumed and experienced credibility of the advisor were influential in determining the weight attached to the advice.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10454/13388
Version
Accepted manuscript
Citation
Onkal D, Gonul MS, Goodwin P et al (2017) Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: users' reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility. International Journal of Forecasting. 33(1): 280-297.
Link to publisher’s version
Link to published version
Link to Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.12.009
Type
Article
Qualification name
Notes