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A comparison of flare forecasting methods. III. Systematic behaviors of operational solar flare forecasting systems
Leka, K.D. Park, S-H. Kusano, K. Andries, J. Barnes, G. Bingham, S. Bloomfield, D.S. McCloskey, A.E. Delouille, V. Falcomer, D.
Leka, K.D.
Park, S-H.
Kusano, K.
Andries, J.
Barnes, G.
Bingham, S.
Bloomfield, D.S.
McCloskey, A.E.
Delouille, V.
Falcomer, D.
Publication Date
2019-08
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© 2019 American Astronomical Association. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
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Accepted for publication
2019
2019-05-07
2019-05-07
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Abstract
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October – 02 November
2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities.
Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019)
we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on
the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad
implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the
small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to
improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human
“forecaster in the loop”; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3)
may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern
data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be
viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this
present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal
patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al.
2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive
methodologies.
Version
Accepted manuscript
Citation
Leka KD, Park S-H, Kusano K et al (2019) A comparison of flare forecasting methods. III. Systematic behaviors of operational solar flare forecasting systems. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. 881(2): 101.
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Article