Automated Prediction of CMEs Using Machine Learning of CME – Flare Associations

In this work, machine learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flares and CMEs data, which are later arranged in numerical training vectors and fed to machine learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Different properties are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares representing the intensity, flare duration, duration of decline and duration of growth. Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) are used in our work. The flare properties are converted to numerical formats that are suitable for CCNN. The CCNN will predict if a certain flare is likely to initiate a CME after input of its properties. Intensive experiments using the Jack-knife techniques are carried out and it is concluded that our system provides an accurate prediction rate of 65.3%. The prediction performance is analysed and recommendation for enhancing the performance are provided.

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10454/7604

Version

Accepted Manuscript

Citation

Qahwaji RSR, Colak T, Al-Omari M and Ipson SS (2008) Automated Prediction of CMEs Using Machine Learning of CME – Flare Associations. Solar Physics. 248(2): 471-483.

Link to Version of Record

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-007-9108-1

Type

Article